World Markets have been very volatile since the summer. The past week has been a welcome reprieve with 6 straight days of recovery but we are bound to see more ups and downs as global growth uncertainty continues.
Before I give you a brief fall Economic Outlook, I feel the need to remind you that your account results have been quite good compared to the markets. The North American markets have lost about 9% year to date. Most of you hold a combination of fixed income, cash and a healthy dose of International Equities, not just North American Equities. Your account will likely show a small gain or very small loss if any.
We do not anticipate any recessions or long-term downturn. Short-term volatility is a normal and healthy process of financial markets. You should not be alarmed at all.
Here is a quick fall 2015 economic outlook. We look forward to seeing you at your annual review meeting to further discuss these events as they pertain to your personal situation. In the meantime, never hesitate to contact us.
Please see the attached Economic Outlook – Fall 2015 from RBC GAM’s Chief Economist Eric Lascelles.
– Oil Prices – Estimates indicate that West Texas oil prices can rise moderately, but probably not all the way back to US$60 a barrel in the near term;
– Financial-market weakness and volatility are naturally concerns at present, though we expect the former will fade. Commodity-oriented risks – mostly connected with resource-exporting countries and companies – may linger due to a fundamental supply-demand mismatch;
– Gazing into 2016, most regions should manage faster growth, though we have more conviction about this view for the developed world than emerging nations. In the developed world, North American growth prospects have been reduced, while the outlook for Europe and Japan is little changed. All appear on track for growth next year that is no worse than 2015, consistent with the economic-recovery narrative;
– The U.S. dollar continued to perform very well last quarter, but the greenback has been in a bull market for four years now and we feel confident declaring that the “easy money” has been made. To be clear, we’re still bullish on the U.S. dollar but are more tentative now, recognizing that the pace of the gains has been significant and that the currency is no longer undervalued.
– Global inflation remains very low and is likely to fall even more in the near term as the latest wave of oil-price weakness washes over the economy.
– In our view, the long-term case for stocks remains intact. Equity valuations were broadly fair before the downturn, but the decline has pushed equity markets below equilibrium, potentially providing an attractive entry point for investors. With stable earnings and the potential for rebounding valuations, total-return prospects for equities remain compelling.