“If inflation continues to soar, you’re going to have to work like a dog just to live like one” – George Gobel
TSX Down Slightly for the Week
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index dropped 28.51 points on Friday, a 0.18 per cent drop, to close at 16,038.97. On the week, the TSX was down 69.12 points (0.43 per cent). Gold miners and materials led the drop, while the financials and energy sectors gained on the day.
Gold dropped this week to finish at $1,279.70 USD per ounce, although it was only $7.60 USD off last Friday’s $1,287.30 per ounce finish (0.59 per cent). However, the precious metal did mitigate the weekly loss on Friday with a gain of $6.50 (0.51 per cent).
U.S. light crude oil finished at $58.29 USD per barrel, down for the week versus last $58.95 USD per barrel close.
The Canadian dollar gained over a penny Friday versus the Greenback (1.36 cents USD, 1.7575 per cent) to finish at 78.89 cents USD.
U.S. Markets Unfazed by Continuing White House Turmoil, Michael Flynn News
The saga in and around the White House and beleaguered President Trump kept going full steam ahead this week. On Friday, former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn testified on his involvement in the 2016 Russia Election Scandal. While the details of his testimony haven’t been made public, Mr. Flynn did plead guilty to lying previously to the FBI on the subject. As part of his guilty plea, Flynn is apparently cooperating with Special Investigator Robert Mueller.
The Russian investigation could derail the Republicans’ planned tax legislation; failure to enact yet another core election promise could spell the end of the GOP majorities in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate. Further, such a failure could hurt markets and therefore investment portfolios, as the anticipated tax cuts would improve companies’ bottom lines, and thus their earnings.
If the tax cuts fall through, a market pullback is certainly possible, leading to reduced returns on portfolios’ US equities.
As far as this week was concerned, however, markets were unfazed. The Greenback and US Treasury yields dropped on the Flynn bombshell, but major US indexes S&P 500, the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rebounded from sharp losses early to finish Friday with only minor setbacks.
The S&P 500 dropped 28.51 points (0.18 per cent) after being down as much as 1.26 per cent midday. The DJIA fell by 41.65 points, or 0.17 per cent, and finally the NASDAQ Composite dropped 26.39 points (0.38 per cent).
Canadian Inflation for October Eases Versus September Inflation
October inflation figures in Canada came in at 1.4 per cent in October, down from 1.6 per cent in October. Statistics Canada cited smaller-then-expected gasoline price increases. September saw a year-to-year gas price increase of 14.1 per cent, mainly on the heels of Hurricane Harvey. October came, supply rebounded, and the October year-to-year increase dropped to 6.5 per cent.
The tightrope that Central Banks like the Bank of Canada have is to keep inflation low, to ensure its currency retains value, while also allowing for some inflation to help the economy keep growing. The Bank of Canada’s stated aim is to keep inflation at the two per cent midpoint of the control range of one-to-three per cent.
How does inflation affect your investment portfolio? It is quite simple, really.
Inflation, in its basest form, is simply the depreciation of the purchasing power of currency. Stated another way, inflation is the increase in the cost of goods. However, inflation is also necessary in an economy to help it grow and expand, which helps increase job numbers and consumer spending (good for the companies and therefore, good for portfolio values). So, inflation numbers that are within the one-to-three per cent target range allows markets returns to grow, while helping your money retain its value.
Weekly Market Wrap-Up
The TSX closed at 16039, down -69 points or -0.43% over the past week. YTD the TSX is up 4.99%.
The DOW closed at 24232, up 674 points or 2.86% over the past week. YTD the DOW is up 22.61%.
The S&P closed at 2642, up 40 points or 1.54% over the past week. YTD the S&P is up 18.00%.
The Nasdaq closed at 6848, down -41 points or -0.60% over the past week. YTD the Nasdaq is up 27.22%.
Gold closed at 1283, down -3.00 points or -0.62% over the past week. YTD gold is up 12.74%.
Oil closed at 58.34, down -0.61 points or -1.03% over the past week. YTD oil is up 11.72%.
The USD/CAD closed at 0.7879, up 0.0009 points or 0.11% over the past week. YTD the USD/CAD is up 6.20%.
The MSCI closed at 2077, up 17 points or 0.83% over the past week. YTD the MSCI is up 18.48%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 3528, down -53 points or -1.48% over the past week. YTD the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 7.20%.
The FTSE closed at 7301, down -109 points or -1.47% over the past week. YTD the FTSE is up 2.21%.
The CAC closed at 5317, down -74 points or -1.37% over the past week. YTD the CAC is up 9.36%.
DAX closed at 12862, down -198.00 points or -1.52% over the past week. YTD DAX is up 12.03%.
Nikkei closed at 22819, up 268.00 points or 1.19% over the past week. YTD Nikkei is up 19.38%.
The Shanghai closed at 3318, down -36.0000 points or -1.07% over the past week. YTD the Shanghai is up 6.89%.
The 10-Yr Bond closed at 2.36, up 0.0200 points or 0.85% over the past week. YTD the 10-Yr Bond is down -3.67%.
Sources: Globe Advisor, Yahoo! Finance, cbc.ca, Bank of Canada, Dynamic