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Category Archives: Interest Rates

Frank Mueller

Weekly Update – May 11, 2018

“Nobody likes high interest rates” – Chanda Kochhar

Bank of Canada Raises Five-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

The Bank of Canada raised its conventional five-year fixed mortgage rate on Wednesday, from 5.14% up to 5.34%. As we all now know, the BoC’s five-year fixed rate is a crucial piece of information for prospective home buyers in Canada. Exactly how this

Less Than 20 Per Cent Down Payment

These prospective buyers must qualify for their mortgage at the BoC’s five-year fixed rate of 5.34 per cent, rather than the rate offered by their lender. For reference, the current five-year fixed rate at one of the “Big Five” Canadian banks is currently 3.74 per cent.

20 Per Cent Down Payment or More

For home buyers with 20 per cent down or more, they must qualify at the greater of the BoC five-year fixed rate, or the agreed upon rate with their bank plus 200 basis-points (two per cent).

So, using the above current five-year fixed rate, purchasers with at least 20 per cent down will have to qualify at the rate of 3.74 + 2.00 = 5.74 per cent, because the “bank rate plus 200 basis-points” exceeds the BoC’s current 5.34 per cent.

Stephen Poloz: Canadian Economy “Finally Positive”; Future Rate Hikes Possible

Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada recently stated that the economy was “finally positive”, adding that he was more encouraged about the economy than he was six months ago.

Poloz did caution that there are still areas of softness within the Canadian economy, as well as high levels of consumer debt. As such, the BoC will need to exercise caution with future rate hikes, to avoid future instability.

While the BoC opted not to raise its key rate steady at 1.25 per cent, analysts pegged a 70 per cent chance of a BoC rate hike in July.

Canadians should look at the potential of further rate increases as a reminder to diligently pay down debt where possible. As always, if dealing with multiple types of debts (credit card balances, student loans, mortgages, lines of credit, etc), attack those debts with the highest interest rates. This almost always means paying down credit cards first. Credit card debt is portfolio poison.

WEEKLY MARKET WRAP-UP

North America

  • The TSX closed at 15983, up 254 points or 1.61% over the past week. YTD the TSX is down -1.39%.
  • The DOW closed at 24831, up 568 points or 2.34% over the past week. YTD the DOW is up 0.45%.
  • The S&P closed at 2728, up 65 points or 2.44% over the past week. YTD the S&P is up 2.02%.
  • The NASDAQ closed at 7403, up 193 points or 2.68% over the past week. YTD the Nasdaq is up 7.24%.
  • Gold closed at 1318, up -9.00 points or 0.15% over the past week. YTD gold is up 0.61%.
  • Oil closed at 70.52, up 0.77 points or 1.10% over the past week. YTD oil is up 16.72%.
  • The USD/CAD closed at 0.7817, up 0.0017 points or 0.22% over the past week. YTD the USD/CAD is down -1.71%.

 Europe/Asia

  • The MSCI closed at 2124, up 53 points or 2.56% over the past week. YTD the MSCI is up 1.00%.
  • The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 3566, up 15 points or 0.42% over the past week. YTD the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.77%.
  • The FTSE closed at 7725, up 158 points or 2.09% over the past week. YTD the FTSE is up 0.48%.
  • The CAC closed at 5542, up 26 points or 0.47% over the past week. YTD the CAC is up 4.31%.
  • DAX closed at 13001, up 181.00 points or 1.41% over the past week. YTD DAX is up 0.64%.
  • Nikkei closed at 22759, up 286.00 points or 1.27% over the past week. YTD Nikkei is down -0.03%.
  • The Shanghai closed at 3163, up 72.0000 points or 2.33% over the past week. YTD the Shanghai is down -4.35%.

 Fixed Income

  • The 10-Yr Bond Yield closed at 2.97, up 0.0300 points or 1.02% over the past week. YTD the 10-Yr Bond Yield is up 23.75%.

 

 

Sources: Dynamic, Advisor.ca

Frank Mueller

Weekly Update – January 19, 2018

“Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants” – Epictetus

TSX Marginally Up for The Week

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose on Friday by 68.99 points (0.42 per cent) to finish up at 16,353.46, a gain of 45.28 points (0.28 per cent) for the week. Though modest, the weekly gain put the index back in the right direction after last week’s loss.

Nine of the 10 main sectors posted wins on Friday. Financials and industrials led the way. The Energy sector was weighed down by an oil pullback. A barrel of Crude Oil fell by 38 cents (USD) on Friday to settle at $63.57 USD per barrel, a down-tick of 86 cents for the week (1.33 per cent).

The oil decrease also affected the Loonie, which weakened compared to the Greenback on Friday. As of 3:59pm EST, the Loonie had dropped 0.64 per cent versus the American Dollar, and sat at 80.01 cents USD.

Investors have now set their sights forward to next week’s NAFTA talks. Some analysts feel NAFTA is a risk, and could pull the Loonie down, should NAFTA be abandoned. Said Mark McCormick, North American head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at TD Securities: “The market is really going to have to price in a negative risk premium on the Canadian dollar, driven primarily on the breakup risks of NAFTA”.

Gold retreated from $1,339 USD per ounce to begin the week back to finish at $1,331.10 USD per ounce, shaving off $7.90 USD per ounce (0.59 per cent).

U.S. Markets Advance, Again

Another week, another plateau hit for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This week, it rose above 26,000 for the first time. On Friday, it gained 53.91 points (0.21 per cent) to close at 26,071.72. On the week, the DJIA was up 268.53 points (1.04 per cent).

The S&P 500 hit its own record closing high, gaining 12.27 points (0.44 per cent) on Friday to close out 2,810.30 (up 0.86 per cent for the week).

The NASDAQ also set a record closing high, climbing to 7,336.38 on the back of a 40.33 point, 0.55 per cent, Friday gain. NASDAQ gained 1.04 per cent for the week.

Disagreements between U.S. Senate Democrats and Republicans could lead to a government shutdown. The deadline is midnight Friday night (tonight). Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and U.S. President Donald Trump met to negotiate an end to the impasse on Friday. The potential shutdown had a minor effect on U.S. markets, but these days, it seems nothing can impede their advance.

As Expected, Bank of Canada Raises Key Rate

As widely expected, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday morning. As with the previous two rate hikes, this was an increase of 25 basis-points from 1.00 per cent to 1.25 per cent. This makes three rate hikes in a little over six months after the BoC held rates steady at 0.50 per cent for nearly nine years. Strong employment figures were among the main reasons that the BoC felt comfortable enough to enact the rate hike.

Two further rate increases are expected by the end of 2018.

As mentioned last week, the rate rise will affect new home purchasers (who didn’t have rate holds in place) and those who carry credit balances on their Home Equity Lines of Credit, regular lines of credit, or home owners with variable mortgage rates.

 

Sources: Globe Advisor, Yahoo! Finance

Frank Mueller

Weekly Update – January 12, 2018

“Success is not final; failure is not fatal: It is the courage to continue that counts.” – Winston S. Churchill

TSX Winning Streak Snapped

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose on Friday but still posted a weekly loss. Friday saw a 21.24-point rise, good for a 0.13 per cent gain. However, the TSX was down 41.26 points on the week, closing at 16,308.18 (down 0.25 per cent week-over-week). This was the first weekly decline in a month, after three consecutive weekly gains.

Cannabis producers were down sharply, but their losses were offset by resource, gold and lumber gains.

U.S. Crude Oil rose by $2.99 USD per barrel or 4.87 per cent this week, closing at $64.43 per barrel.

Gold rose to $1,339 USD per ounce this week, as the US Dollar depreciated.

The December jobs report once again showed strong growth in Canada, with 23,700 full-time jobs and 78,600 total jobs added. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest mark in 41 years, from 5.9 per cent in November down to 5.7 per cent for December.

However, David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates opined “at face value the (unemployment) number looks great, but… there are question marks beneath the surface that has me thinking it is overstating the strength in the economy”.

Undaunted, the Loonie took the jobs numbers and moved upward to settle at 80.24 cents to the Greenback. Should the Bank of Canada raise their key rate next week (more on that below) we can expect the Loonie to jump again.

U.S. Markets Continue to Rise

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) continued to skyrocket this week. Last week, the DJIA rose above 25,000 for the first time; this week, after a rise of 228.46 points (0.89 per cent) on Friday, the major index rose to 25,803.19, good for a weekly gain of 507 points, an even two per cent gain.

The S&P 500 rose 18.68 points (0.67 per cent) on Friday to close out the week at 2,786, good for a weekly gain of 1.57 per cent.

NASDAQ gained 49.29 points (0.68 per cent) on Friday to close at 7,261, a weekly gain of 124 points (1.74 per cent).

Bank of Canada Expected to Raise Rates Next Week

This coming Monday, January 15th is the dreaded “Blue Monday 2018”, where the perfect storm of poor weather, short days and long nights, the realization of how much was *actually* spent over the holidays, the fact the holidays are now firmly in the rear-view mirror, low motivation levels, and finally, the realization that most or all of our New Year’s Resolutions have failed to take hold all combine to create the saddest day on the calendar year.

For those who haven’t managed to keep spending in check over the holidays (or otherwise), this Wednesday may add to the misery. The Bank of Canada is overwhelmingly expected by analysts to raise its benchmark rate to 1.25%, up from 1.00%, this coming week. Many big banks such as RBC, TD and CIBC have already raised their mortgage rates in anticipation.

As rates climb, you can expect credit balances with variable rates, such as variable rate mortgages, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and secured & unsecured credit lines to increase their rates accordingly. As a result, borrowers will now pay more interest each month on these balances. Credit card rates (which are generally sky-high at 19.99 – 28.99 per cent) won’t be affected, but the rates are so high that you shouldn’t carry balances anyway.

Bottom line: pay down those credit lines where possible to avoid paying more interest each month.

WEEKLY MARKET WRAP-UP

North America
The TSX closed at 16308, down -41 points or -0.25% over the past week. YTD the TSX is up 0.61%.
The DOW closed at 25803, up 507 points or 2.00% over the past week. YTD the DOW is up 4.39%.
The S&P closed at 2786, up 43 points or 1.57% over the past week. YTD the S&P is up 4.19%.
The Nasdaq closed at 7261, up 124 points or 1.74% over the past week. YTD the Nasdaq is up 5.19%.
Gold closed at 1339, up 14.00 points or 1.13% over the past week. YTD gold is up 2.21%.
Oil closed at 64.43, up 2.99 points or 4.87% over the past week. YTD oil is up 6.64%.
The USD/CAD closed at 0.80239, down -0.0044 points or -0.55% over the past week. YTD the USD/CAD is up 0.89%.

Europe/Asia
The MSCI closed at 2172, up 15 points or 0.70% over the past week. YTD the MSCI is up 3.28%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 3613, up 5 points or 0.14% over the past week. YTD the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 3.11%.
The FTSE closed at 7779, up 55 points or 0.71% over the past week. YTD the FTSE is up 1.18%.
The CAC closed at 5517, up 46 points or 0.84% over the past week. YTD the CAC is up 3.84%.
DAX closed at 13245, down -75.00 points or -0.56% over the past week. YTD DAX is up 2.53%.
Nikkei closed at 23654, down -61.00 points or -0.26% over the past week. YTD Nikkei is up 3.91%.
The Shanghai closed at 3429, up 37.0000 points or 1.09% over the past week. YTD the Shanghai is up 3.69%.

Fixed Income
The 10-Yr Bond closed at 2.55, up 0.0700 points or 2.82% over the past week. YTD the 10-Yr Bond is up 6.25%.

Sources: Globe Advisor, BNN.ca, Yahoo! Finance

Frank Mueller

Weekly Update – January 5, 2018

“Every accomplishment starts with a decision to try” – Anonymous

New Year, Same Rally

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index dropped 63.50 points (0.39 per cent) on Friday to finish at 16,349.44. Resources weighed on the TSX on Friday, with oil, gold, copper and other metals pulling back on the day.

However, the TSX enjoyed a gain of 0.9 per cent on the week as the extended market rally continued into 2018.

Statistics Canada announced the December jobs numbers, with 79,000 new jobs being added. One caveat, however, is that most of them were seasonal, part-time positions. However, Canada’s unemployment rate of 5.9% in November was a full percentage point lower than in November 2016.

Retail sales data, housing starts, and consumer confidence levels were all higher year-over-year as well.

U.S. Crude Oil dropped by 42 cents USD per barrel to finish the week at $61.59 USD.

Gold dropped by $1.30 USD per ounce on Friday, and finished at $1,320.30 per ounce.

The Loonie rose by 56 basis points on Friday to finish at 80.61 cents to the Greenback, a rise of 0.6989 per cent.

U.S. Markets Hit More Record Highs

The S&P 500 rose 19.08 points (0.70 per cent) on Friday to close out the week at 2,743.07.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose above 25,000 for the first time ever on Thursday, and jumped by 220.74 points (0.88 per cent) on Friday to finish at 25,295.87.

NASDAQ also had a good day on Friday, with a gain of 58.64 points (0.83 per cent).

Some encouraging global economic data helped to propel markets upward. US unemployment figures for November – like Canadian unemployment – were lower than a year prior.

2017 Market Recap

It was, in some ways, a strange year for the Canadian investor. Early in the year, Canadian markets were relatively flat, while south of the border, U.S. markets were (and still are) very hot. Overseas markets advanced. However, as the Canadian dollar appreciated relative to the Greenback, U.S. and many overseas gains were mitigated.

As the year progressed, the Bank of Canada raised rates twice, and the Fed also raised rates. The BoC raising rates led to a dampening of fixed income returns. Luckily, the TSX rebounded late and was able to post a decent, if unremarkable, 6% increase on the year.

Most major international indexes posted double-digit returns; in fact, even factoring the appreciating Loonie, global markets outpaced Canadian markets.

So, what is the lesson here? In our opinion, this information reinforces the benefit of sound diversification, not only between equities and fixed income, but also regional diversification. Canadian investors have the reputation of being the most biased toward domestic markets, and, at least in 2017, the Canadian investor who invested heavily in Canada at the expense of other regions certainly missed out on some significant gains.

If you have questions about your asset allocation or would like to come in for a review of your portfolio, please let us know!

2017 Market Recap: By The Numbers

North America
The TSX finished at 16,209, up 6.0% for 2017
The DOW finished at 24,719, up 25.1% for 2017, or 17.0% in $CDN
The S&P 500 finished at 2,674, up 19.4% for 2017, or 11.7% in $CDN

The NASDAQ finished at 6,903, up 28.2% for 2017, or 19.9% in $CDN
Gold finished at $1,303 USD per ounce, up 13.1% for 2017
Oil finished at $60.42 USD per barrel, up 12.5% for 2017
The USD/CDN finished at 0.7955, up 6.9% for 2017
The CDN/EUR finished at 1.5089, up 6.8% for 2017

Europe/Asia
The MSCI World finished at 2,103, up 20.1% for 2017, or 12.3% in $CDN
The MSCI EAFE finished at 2,051, up 21.8% for 2017, or 13.9% in $CDN
The MSCI EM finished at 1,158, up 34.3% for 2017, or 25.7% in $CDN
The FTSE 100 finished at 7,688, up 7.6% for 2017, or 10.3% in $CDN
The DAX finished at 12,918, up 12.8% for 2017, or 20.4% in $CDN
The Nikkei finished at 22,765, up 18.9% for 2017, or 15.3% in $CDN

Sources: Globe Advisor, TD, Yahoo! Finance

Frank Mueller

Weekly Update – December 8, 2017

“We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give” – Winston Churchill

TSX Rises on to End Week on a Positive

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose by 80.39 points Friday, a 0.50 per cent gain, to close at 16,096.07. On the week, the TSX managed a gain of 57.10 points (0.36 per cent). Nine of the 10 main groups rose on Friday.

Gold dropped $3.90 USD per ounce on Friday (0.31 per cent) to close the week at $1,245.90 per ounce. On the week, this represents a drop of $33.80 an ounce (2.64 per cent).

Increasing Chinese demand for oil, coupled with potential supply-side issues out of Africa, led oil up on Friday; however, oil was down for the week overall. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $57.33 USD per barrel, up 64 cents (1.13 per cent), but was down 96 cents for the week, a drop of 1.65 per cent.

The Loonie sat at 77.87 cents to the Greenback on Friday (as of 2:14pm), a gain of 12 basis-points (0.17 per cent). On the week, the Canadian Dollar was down 1.02 cents (1.29 per cent).

U.S. Markets All Gain on Friday

Friday saw increases across the board on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up was up 117.68 points (0.49 per cent) to close the week at 24,329.16.

The S&P 500 gained 14.52 points (0.55 per cent) to finish at 2,651.50.

The NASDAQ rose by 27.24 points (0.40 per cent) and settled at 6,840.08.

November jobs numbers propelled markets upward to end the week, a further signal of a strong economy. Analysts already expected a rate hike next week, and the strong jobs figures propelled this expectation.

CRA Confirms 2018 Tax-Free Savings Account Room

This week, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) announced the new Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) room for 2018 will be unchanged at $5,500.

How does this announcement affect your investment portfolio? Well, this is $5,500 of new space to shelter your investments from capital gains tax. Remember that you contribute net income to your TFSA because unlike the RRSP, you don’t get a tax savings on your contributions to a TFSA. However, you get the tax savings when you make withdrawals from your TFSA – you pay no capital gains whatsoever – and you also enjoy tax-sheltered growth while your money is in the TFSA itself.

If you have questions about how best to invest your money, be it to an RRSP, TFSA or to a Non-Registered account, give us a call and we can discuss your specific needs!

Weekly Market Wrap-Up

North America
The TSX closed at 16,097, up 58 points or 0.36% over the past week. YTD the TSX is up 5.37%.
The DOW closed at 24,329, up 97 points or 0.40% over the past week. YTD the DOW is up 23.10%.
The S&P closed at 2,652, up 10 points or 0.38% over the past week. YTD the S&P is up 18.45%.
The Nasdaq closed at 6,838, down -10 points or -0.15% over the past week. YTD the Nasdaq is up 27.03%.
Gold closed at 1,246, down -8.00 points or -2.88% over the past week. YTD gold is up 9.49%.
Oil closed at 57.34, down -1.00 points or -1.71% over the past week. YTD oil is up 9.80%.
The USD/CAD closed at 0.77714, down -0.0108 points or -1.37% over the past week. YTD the USD/CAD is up 4.75%.

Europe/Asia
The MSCI closed at 2064, down -13 points or -0.63% over the past week. YTD the MSCI is up 17.74%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 3592, up 64 points or 1.81% over the past week. YTD the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 9.15%.
The FTSE closed at 7394, up 93 points or 1.27% over the past week. YTD the FTSE is up 3.51%.
The CAC closed at 5399, up 82 points or 1.54% over the past week. YTD the CAC is up 11.04%.
DAX closed at 13154, up 292.00 points or 2.27% over the past week. YTD DAX is up 14.57%.
Nikkei closed at 22811, down -8.00 points or -0.04% over the past week. YTD Nikkei is up 19.34%.
The Shanghai closed at 3290, down -28.0000 points or -0.84% over the past week. YTD the Shanghai is up 5.99%.

Fixed Income
The 10-Yr Bond closed at 2.38, up 0.0200 points or 0.85% over the past week.YTD the 10-Yr Bond is down -2.86%.

Sources: Globe Advisor, Yahoo! Finance, cbc.ca, Bank of Canada, Dynamic

Frank Mueller

Weekly Update – November 24, 2017

“This would be a much better world if more married couples were as deeply in love as they are in debt” – Earl Wilson

TSX Posts Modest Increase on the Week

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index, helped by broad gains, finished up on Friday by 33.79 points (0.21 per cent) to finish the week at 16,108.09. For the week, it was up 0.7 per cent (87.93 points) over last Friday’s finish at 16,039.26.

The energy and financial sectors gained on Friday.

Gold prices jumped this week overall, although it fell on Friday by $4.90 USD per ounce to $1,287.30. The $11.70 USD per ounce was good for a 0.92 per cent week-over-week increase.

U.S. light crude oil closed at a two-year high mark of $58.95 USD per barrel, while Brent crude oil gained 31 cents USD to finish at $63.86 USD per barrel. OPEC countries have once again been dancing around a potential supply cut, but nothing has been set in stone.

The Loonie gained 2 basis points on Friday, and stood at 78.68 cents USD as of Friday at 3:03pm PST. On the week, the Loonie dropped 25 basis points from last Friday’s finish of 78.93 cents to the Greenback, a drop of 0.32 per cent.

U.S. Markets See Dow Jones, S&P 500 Break Mini-Losing Streaks; NASDAQ Jumps

Black Friday, the famous shopping day that immediately follows the U.S. Thanksgiving – and for all intents and purposes, signals the green light for holiday shopping – meant a half-session on Wall Street. All of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted gains on Black Friday.

U.S. Thanksgiving Thursday saw three things: football, turkey and online shopping. According to Adobe Analytics, U.S. shoppers spent nearly $3 Billion online on Thursday.

Some heavyweight online retailers saw boosts on Friday, as optimism over the holiday shopping season is expected to bode well for 4th Quarter Earnings. Bricks & mortar stores with strong online presences fared quite well on Friday.

The Dow Jones rose 31.81 points (0.14 per cent) to finish at 23,557.99; the S&P 500 rose a modest 5.34 points (0.21 per cent) to finish at 2,602.42; the NASDAQ jumped 21.80 points (0.32 per cent) to settle at 6,889.16.

Lastly, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), dropped to a 3-week low of 9.67.

Canadian Household Debt Levels Highest Amount 35 Developed & Developing Countries

According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Canada’s household debt ranks as the highest among 35 developed & developing countries that are monitored by the OECD. Read our blog post on the subject here.

Sources: Globe Advisor, Yahoo! Finance, Adobe Analytics, CNBC.com