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“Markets love volatility” – Christine Lagarde

Last week, we advised that the weekly brief will only consist of market numbers until the completion of tax season on April 30th. However, we wanted to provide some perspective on the recent market pullback.

Bloomberg has written a great article on the recent volatility. Throughout the current nine-year U.S. bull market, there have been five other corrections like this one. On average, equities fell 14 per cent and took seven months to recover. It has been 60 days since the January 26th peak for the S&P 500; therefore, this current correction could last until August (if other recent selloffs are any indication).

While the message we’re trying to impart is that volatility is quite normal, we understand that it may be concerning in the short term. The above data is simply a reminder that even in an upward market there are prolonged periods of negative returns.

If you have any questions about markets or your portfolio, please feel free to contact us.

On behalf of the You First team, we wish you a Happy Easter long weekend.

“Globalization and free trade do spur economic growth, and they lead to lower prices on many goods” – Robert Reich

Please note that starting next week until the end of April, our weekly update will simply consist of the weekly and year-to-date market numbers.

Stock Markets Drop on Tariff Worries

Sabre-rattling between the United States and China intensified this week, with President Trump signing a presidential memorandum with aim to impose $60 Billion of import tariffs on Chinese goods; the Chinese retaliated with a $3 Billion tariff threat on American goods.

It should be noted that prior to officially enacting the tariffs on China, there is a 30-day consultation period on the memorandum, so there is certainly no guarantee that the tariffs will come to pass.

What does this mean for your portfolio? Well, following a relatively smooth and calm 2017, 2018 has brought us the “return of market volatility”, with more ups and downs in the market. This increased volatility provides long-term-focused investors with buying opportunities when markets do dip, such as right now.

Feel free to contact us with questions, or if you’d like to make a contribution!

Parents with Children at Daycare: Check for Fee Reductions Starting April

In its February budget, the provincial government announced various affordable childcare initiatives.

The measure that made most headlines is the affordable childcare benefit, an income-based subsidy making childcare free for families with income below $45,000. This will take effect starting September 2018.

What was not as heavily mentioned was a non-income-based fee reduction under the new Child Care Operating Funding (CCOF) program. The program is optional – childcare providers can choose to or not to participate.

For childcare providers that have opted into the CCOF program, the fee reductions will start as early as April 1^st, and are as follows:

• $350/month for group infant/toddler care
• $200/month for family infant/toddler care
• $100/month for group care for children aged 3-5
• $60/month for family care for children aged 3-5

If you have an infant or toddler or a child aged 3 to 5 in licensed group or family care, check to see if your provider is planning to participate in the fee reduction initiative.

More information can be found here.

Weekly Market Wrap-Up

North America

• The TSX closed at 15224, down -487 points or -3.10% over the past week. YTD the TSX is down -6.08%.
• The DOW closed at 23533, down -1414 points or -5.67% over the past week. YTD the DOW is down -4.80%.
• The S&P closed at 2588, down -164 points or -5.96% over the past week. YTD the S&P is down -3.22%.
• The NASDAQ closed at 6993, down -489 points or -6.54% over the past week. YTD the Nasdaq is up 1.30%.
• Gold closed at 1348, up -9.00 points or 2.51% over the past week. YTD gold is up 2.90%.
• Oil closed at 65.81, up 3.47 points or 5.57% over the past week. YTD oil is up 8.92%.
• The USD/CAD closed at 0.7755, up 0.0118 points or 1.55% over the past week. YTD the USD/CAD is down -2.49%.

Europe/Asia

• The MSCI closed at 2073, down -61 points or -2.86% over the past week. YTD the MSCI is down -1.43%.
• The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 3304, down -133 points or -3.87% over the past week. YTD the Euro Stoxx 50 is down -5.71%.
• The FTSE closed at 6922, down -242 points or -3.38% over the past week. YTD the FTSE is down -9.96%.
• The CAC closed at 5095, down -188 points or -3.56% over the past week. YTD the CAC is down -4.10%.
• DAX closed at 11886, down -504.00 points or -4.07% over the past week. YTD DAX is down -7.99%.
• Nikkei closed at 20618, down -1059.00 points or -4.89% over the past week. YTD Nikkei is down -9.43%.
• The Shanghai closed at 3153, down -117.0000 points or -3.58% over the past week. YTD the Shanghai is down -4.66%.

Fixed Income

• The 10-Yr Bond Yield closed at 2.83, down -0.0200 points or -0.70% over the past week. YTD the 10-Yr Bond is up 17.92%.

Sources: Globe Advisor, Dynamic Funds

“Success is not final; failure is not fatal: It is the courage to continue that counts.” – Winston S. Churchill

TSX Winning Streak Snapped

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose on Friday but still posted a weekly loss. Friday saw a 21.24-point rise, good for a 0.13 per cent gain. However, the TSX was down 41.26 points on the week, closing at 16,308.18 (down 0.25 per cent week-over-week). This was the first weekly decline in a month, after three consecutive weekly gains.

Cannabis producers were down sharply, but their losses were offset by resource, gold and lumber gains.

U.S. Crude Oil rose by $2.99 USD per barrel or 4.87 per cent this week, closing at $64.43 per barrel.

Gold rose to $1,339 USD per ounce this week, as the US Dollar depreciated.

The December jobs report once again showed strong growth in Canada, with 23,700 full-time jobs and 78,600 total jobs added. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest mark in 41 years, from 5.9 per cent in November down to 5.7 per cent for December.

However, David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates opined “at face value the (unemployment) number looks great, but… there are question marks beneath the surface that has me thinking it is overstating the strength in the economy”.

Undaunted, the Loonie took the jobs numbers and moved upward to settle at 80.24 cents to the Greenback. Should the Bank of Canada raise their key rate next week (more on that below) we can expect the Loonie to jump again.

U.S. Markets Continue to Rise

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) continued to skyrocket this week. Last week, the DJIA rose above 25,000 for the first time; this week, after a rise of 228.46 points (0.89 per cent) on Friday, the major index rose to 25,803.19, good for a weekly gain of 507 points, an even two per cent gain.

The S&P 500 rose 18.68 points (0.67 per cent) on Friday to close out the week at 2,786, good for a weekly gain of 1.57 per cent.

NASDAQ gained 49.29 points (0.68 per cent) on Friday to close at 7,261, a weekly gain of 124 points (1.74 per cent).

Bank of Canada Expected to Raise Rates Next Week

This coming Monday, January 15th is the dreaded “Blue Monday 2018”, where the perfect storm of poor weather, short days and long nights, the realization of how much was *actually* spent over the holidays, the fact the holidays are now firmly in the rear-view mirror, low motivation levels, and finally, the realization that most or all of our New Year’s Resolutions have failed to take hold all combine to create the saddest day on the calendar year.

For those who haven’t managed to keep spending in check over the holidays (or otherwise), this Wednesday may add to the misery. The Bank of Canada is overwhelmingly expected by analysts to raise its benchmark rate to 1.25%, up from 1.00%, this coming week. Many big banks such as RBC, TD and CIBC have already raised their mortgage rates in anticipation.

As rates climb, you can expect credit balances with variable rates, such as variable rate mortgages, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and secured & unsecured credit lines to increase their rates accordingly. As a result, borrowers will now pay more interest each month on these balances. Credit card rates (which are generally sky-high at 19.99 – 28.99 per cent) won’t be affected, but the rates are so high that you shouldn’t carry balances anyway.

Bottom line: pay down those credit lines where possible to avoid paying more interest each month.

WEEKLY MARKET WRAP-UP

North America
The TSX closed at 16308, down -41 points or -0.25% over the past week. YTD the TSX is up 0.61%.
The DOW closed at 25803, up 507 points or 2.00% over the past week. YTD the DOW is up 4.39%.
The S&P closed at 2786, up 43 points or 1.57% over the past week. YTD the S&P is up 4.19%.
The Nasdaq closed at 7261, up 124 points or 1.74% over the past week. YTD the Nasdaq is up 5.19%.
Gold closed at 1339, up 14.00 points or 1.13% over the past week. YTD gold is up 2.21%.
Oil closed at 64.43, up 2.99 points or 4.87% over the past week. YTD oil is up 6.64%.
The USD/CAD closed at 0.80239, down -0.0044 points or -0.55% over the past week. YTD the USD/CAD is up 0.89%.

Europe/Asia
The MSCI closed at 2172, up 15 points or 0.70% over the past week. YTD the MSCI is up 3.28%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 3613, up 5 points or 0.14% over the past week. YTD the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 3.11%.
The FTSE closed at 7779, up 55 points or 0.71% over the past week. YTD the FTSE is up 1.18%.
The CAC closed at 5517, up 46 points or 0.84% over the past week. YTD the CAC is up 3.84%.
DAX closed at 13245, down -75.00 points or -0.56% over the past week. YTD DAX is up 2.53%.
Nikkei closed at 23654, down -61.00 points or -0.26% over the past week. YTD Nikkei is up 3.91%.
The Shanghai closed at 3429, up 37.0000 points or 1.09% over the past week. YTD the Shanghai is up 3.69%.

Fixed Income
The 10-Yr Bond closed at 2.55, up 0.0700 points or 2.82% over the past week. YTD the 10-Yr Bond is up 6.25%.

Sources: Globe Advisor, BNN.ca, Yahoo! Finance

“Every accomplishment starts with a decision to try” – Anonymous

New Year, Same Rally

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index dropped 63.50 points (0.39 per cent) on Friday to finish at 16,349.44. Resources weighed on the TSX on Friday, with oil, gold, copper and other metals pulling back on the day.

However, the TSX enjoyed a gain of 0.9 per cent on the week as the extended market rally continued into 2018.

Statistics Canada announced the December jobs numbers, with 79,000 new jobs being added. One caveat, however, is that most of them were seasonal, part-time positions. However, Canada’s unemployment rate of 5.9% in November was a full percentage point lower than in November 2016.

Retail sales data, housing starts, and consumer confidence levels were all higher year-over-year as well.

U.S. Crude Oil dropped by 42 cents USD per barrel to finish the week at $61.59 USD.

Gold dropped by $1.30 USD per ounce on Friday, and finished at $1,320.30 per ounce.

The Loonie rose by 56 basis points on Friday to finish at 80.61 cents to the Greenback, a rise of 0.6989 per cent.

U.S. Markets Hit More Record Highs

The S&P 500 rose 19.08 points (0.70 per cent) on Friday to close out the week at 2,743.07.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose above 25,000 for the first time ever on Thursday, and jumped by 220.74 points (0.88 per cent) on Friday to finish at 25,295.87.

NASDAQ also had a good day on Friday, with a gain of 58.64 points (0.83 per cent).

Some encouraging global economic data helped to propel markets upward. US unemployment figures for November – like Canadian unemployment – were lower than a year prior.

2017 Market Recap

It was, in some ways, a strange year for the Canadian investor. Early in the year, Canadian markets were relatively flat, while south of the border, U.S. markets were (and still are) very hot. Overseas markets advanced. However, as the Canadian dollar appreciated relative to the Greenback, U.S. and many overseas gains were mitigated.

As the year progressed, the Bank of Canada raised rates twice, and the Fed also raised rates. The BoC raising rates led to a dampening of fixed income returns. Luckily, the TSX rebounded late and was able to post a decent, if unremarkable, 6% increase on the year.

Most major international indexes posted double-digit returns; in fact, even factoring the appreciating Loonie, global markets outpaced Canadian markets.

So, what is the lesson here? In our opinion, this information reinforces the benefit of sound diversification, not only between equities and fixed income, but also regional diversification. Canadian investors have the reputation of being the most biased toward domestic markets, and, at least in 2017, the Canadian investor who invested heavily in Canada at the expense of other regions certainly missed out on some significant gains.

If you have questions about your asset allocation or would like to come in for a review of your portfolio, please let us know!

2017 Market Recap: By The Numbers

North America
The TSX finished at 16,209, up 6.0% for 2017
The DOW finished at 24,719, up 25.1% for 2017, or 17.0% in $CDN
The S&P 500 finished at 2,674, up 19.4% for 2017, or 11.7% in $CDN

The NASDAQ finished at 6,903, up 28.2% for 2017, or 19.9% in $CDN
Gold finished at $1,303 USD per ounce, up 13.1% for 2017
Oil finished at $60.42 USD per barrel, up 12.5% for 2017
The USD/CDN finished at 0.7955, up 6.9% for 2017
The CDN/EUR finished at 1.5089, up 6.8% for 2017

Europe/Asia
The MSCI World finished at 2,103, up 20.1% for 2017, or 12.3% in $CDN
The MSCI EAFE finished at 2,051, up 21.8% for 2017, or 13.9% in $CDN
The MSCI EM finished at 1,158, up 34.3% for 2017, or 25.7% in $CDN
The FTSE 100 finished at 7,688, up 7.6% for 2017, or 10.3% in $CDN
The DAX finished at 12,918, up 12.8% for 2017, or 20.4% in $CDN
The Nikkei finished at 22,765, up 18.9% for 2017, or 15.3% in $CDN

Sources: Globe Advisor, TD, Yahoo! Finance

Until the end of the year, we’ll be deviating from the usual “weekly brief” format. We believe it is a good time to take a final stock – pardon the pun – of your overall financial planning situation. Below is a checklist of some of the items we try to cover with you at your meeting. If you want to confirm an item on this list has been addressed, please do not hesitate to contact us. Our office will remain open during the holidays.

Investing

• Portfolio mix. Different investments are taxed at different tax rates. If you invest in both registered and non-registered accounts, ensure you optimize your portfolio mix to ensure maximum tax-efficiency
• The amount added to the TFSA room on January 1^st, 2018 will be $5,500. This will bring the lifetime amount to $57,500. Consider putting funds into your TFSA to the extent you can make contributions (or via a transfer from your non-registered account). Ensure you don’t exceed your contribution room due to the significant penalty on over-contributions. If you have authorized us for CRA access, we can confirm your TFSA limit.
• If you were planning on withdrawing from your TFSA, do so by the end of the year. The amount you withdraw will be added to your TFSA room at the start of 2018. If you withdraw in January 2018, you won’t get the room back until January 2019.
• If you have investments in a non-registered account in a capital loss position, consider triggering the capital loss to offset capital gains realized during the year.
• For non-registered accounts, delay purchases until January 2018 to minimize your allocation of taxable income for 2017 (after year-end distributions). For similar reasons, consider selling your mutual fund in a non-registered account before year-end as well (prior to year end-distributions).

Taxes

• Any donations you want to claim on your 2017 tax return must be made by December 31, 2017.  Donations must be made to a registered charity. Contributions above $200 result in a 29% federal tax credit. Keep the donation receipts! The CRA was more aggressive in requesting documentation to prove the donations were actually made.
• If you are a first-time donor, you can claim an additional 25% credit on up to $1,000 of donations made after March 20, 2013.  2017 is the final year in which this credit can be claimed.
• Public transit tax credit. This credit will be eliminated following the 2017 tax year. You can claim on your 2017 income tax return, only the cost pertaining of monthly passes for transit services for the period January 1 to June 30, 2017.
• If you are over 65 with no private pension, consider withdrawing $2,000 from a RRIF account to trigger the $2,000 pension credit.
• Home accessibility tax credits. If you incur eligible expenses of up to $10,000 to increase the mobility or safety of a senior, you will be able to claim the federal home accessibility home credit and BC senior’s home renovation tax credit.

RRSP

• The deadline to make an RRSP contribution for the 2017 tax year is March 1, 2018. If you have authorized us for CRA access, we can confirm your RRSP limit, factoring in any contributions you’ve made with us. An RRSP contribution has a tax savings potential of anywhere between 20%-47.7% for BC residents.
• If you turned 71 this year, this is the final year you can contribute to an RRSP. Consider making an RRSP contribution in December of the year you turned 71 if your income in 2017 is higher than what you expect in later years.
  • If you turned 71 this year, you must wind up your RRSP by the end of the year. For most people, this means a conversion to a RRIF account with minimum annual withdrawals starting the following year.
• Consider withdrawing funds from your RRSP if you have low income for the year.

Self-Employment / Business / Corporations

• Consider 2017 income splitting opportunities (spouse, children, parents, etc.) as the rule changes that are likely to come for corporations in 2018 may eliminate this strategy moving forward.
• The new rules will grandfather any existing passive investment income currently held in a corporation.  They will also allow passive income of up to $50,000 not subject to higher taxation. This means that under the new regime, you could add $1,000,000 (in addition to any grandfathered assets) generating income of 5% a year and be exempt.
• If you are self-employed, consider purchasing capital assets before year-end. If the asset is available for use before the end of the year, you can claim one-half of the usual tax amortization for the year.
• Consider paying a salary or bonus from your corporation to yourself in December. Usually, the payroll tax for this is due by January 15th (may be sooner depending on your remitter type).

Children

• If you have an RESP and your child has turned 17 in 2017, this is the final year of his/her grant eligibility.  If you have grant room remaining, you can contribute up to $5,000 in the final year, generating a $1,000 grant.
• Pay child-care expenses for 2017 by December 31^st, 2017 and get a receipt. Remember that boarding school and camp fees qualify for the child care deduction.
• If your child qualifies for the disability tax credit, and if RDSP assets or income will not disqualify him/her from receiving provincial income support, consider setting up an RDSP to qualify for the Canada Disability Savings Bond (CDSB – lifetime maximum of $20,000 per child). Contributions to an RDSP qualify for the Canada Disability Savings Grant (CDSG – lifetime maximum of $70,000 per child)
• Children’s fitness and art credit. Sadly, these tax credits have been completely phased out, and you won’t receive a credit for these costs on your 2017 return.

Other

• Note that MSP premiums will be cut in half for all taxpayers in 2018. The provincial government intends to eliminate all MSP premiums within four years.

“We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give” – Winston Churchill

TSX Rises on to End Week on a Positive

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose by 80.39 points Friday, a 0.50 per cent gain, to close at 16,096.07. On the week, the TSX managed a gain of 57.10 points (0.36 per cent). Nine of the 10 main groups rose on Friday.

Gold dropped $3.90 USD per ounce on Friday (0.31 per cent) to close the week at $1,245.90 per ounce. On the week, this represents a drop of $33.80 an ounce (2.64 per cent).

Increasing Chinese demand for oil, coupled with potential supply-side issues out of Africa, led oil up on Friday; however, oil was down for the week overall. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $57.33 USD per barrel, up 64 cents (1.13 per cent), but was down 96 cents for the week, a drop of 1.65 per cent.

The Loonie sat at 77.87 cents to the Greenback on Friday (as of 2:14pm), a gain of 12 basis-points (0.17 per cent). On the week, the Canadian Dollar was down 1.02 cents (1.29 per cent).

U.S. Markets All Gain on Friday

Friday saw increases across the board on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up was up 117.68 points (0.49 per cent) to close the week at 24,329.16.

The S&P 500 gained 14.52 points (0.55 per cent) to finish at 2,651.50.

The NASDAQ rose by 27.24 points (0.40 per cent) and settled at 6,840.08.

November jobs numbers propelled markets upward to end the week, a further signal of a strong economy. Analysts already expected a rate hike next week, and the strong jobs figures propelled this expectation.

CRA Confirms 2018 Tax-Free Savings Account Room

This week, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) announced the new Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) room for 2018 will be unchanged at $5,500.

How does this announcement affect your investment portfolio? Well, this is $5,500 of new space to shelter your investments from capital gains tax. Remember that you contribute net income to your TFSA because unlike the RRSP, you don’t get a tax savings on your contributions to a TFSA. However, you get the tax savings when you make withdrawals from your TFSA – you pay no capital gains whatsoever – and you also enjoy tax-sheltered growth while your money is in the TFSA itself.

If you have questions about how best to invest your money, be it to an RRSP, TFSA or to a Non-Registered account, give us a call and we can discuss your specific needs!

Weekly Market Wrap-Up

North America
The TSX closed at 16,097, up 58 points or 0.36% over the past week. YTD the TSX is up 5.37%.
The DOW closed at 24,329, up 97 points or 0.40% over the past week. YTD the DOW is up 23.10%.
The S&P closed at 2,652, up 10 points or 0.38% over the past week. YTD the S&P is up 18.45%.
The Nasdaq closed at 6,838, down -10 points or -0.15% over the past week. YTD the Nasdaq is up 27.03%.
Gold closed at 1,246, down -8.00 points or -2.88% over the past week. YTD gold is up 9.49%.
Oil closed at 57.34, down -1.00 points or -1.71% over the past week. YTD oil is up 9.80%.
The USD/CAD closed at 0.77714, down -0.0108 points or -1.37% over the past week. YTD the USD/CAD is up 4.75%.

Europe/Asia
The MSCI closed at 2064, down -13 points or -0.63% over the past week. YTD the MSCI is up 17.74%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 3592, up 64 points or 1.81% over the past week. YTD the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 9.15%.
The FTSE closed at 7394, up 93 points or 1.27% over the past week. YTD the FTSE is up 3.51%.
The CAC closed at 5399, up 82 points or 1.54% over the past week. YTD the CAC is up 11.04%.
DAX closed at 13154, up 292.00 points or 2.27% over the past week. YTD DAX is up 14.57%.
Nikkei closed at 22811, down -8.00 points or -0.04% over the past week. YTD Nikkei is up 19.34%.
The Shanghai closed at 3290, down -28.0000 points or -0.84% over the past week. YTD the Shanghai is up 5.99%.

Fixed Income
The 10-Yr Bond closed at 2.38, up 0.0200 points or 0.85% over the past week.YTD the 10-Yr Bond is down -2.86%.

Sources: Globe Advisor, Yahoo! Finance, cbc.ca, Bank of Canada, Dynamic