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Terry Broaders

Weekly Update July 19 2016

“No Cause Justifies The Killing of Innocent People ” – Albert Camus

 

After 5 Day Rally, Markets Quiet On Friday

North American markets were relatively flat Friday, ending a five-day rally, even as positive economic news emerged from China and the U.S. The loonie finished the day at 77.30 cents US, down 0.23 of a U.S. cent. The S&P/TSX composite index fell by 32.10 points to 14,482.42. For the week the index grew by 1.6%. Year to date the return is +11.32%.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average advanced by 10.14 points to 18,516.55, a new record high. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gave back 2.01 poi nts to 2,161.74 and the Nasdaq composite slipped by 4.47 points to 5,029.59. In commodities, the August contract for crude oil gained 27 cents to US$45.95, while the more heavily-traded September contract climbed 23 cents to US$46.65.
August natural gas was up three cents to US$2.76 per mmBtu and August gold lost US$4.80 to US$1,327.40 per ounce.

 

 

RCMP and CRA Issue Warning On Taxpayer Scam 

The RCMP and the Canada Revenue Agency are warning again about the “taxpayer scam” as Canadians continue to be victimized almost daily. Fraudsters impersonating CRA employees target their victims and demand either personal information, or payment for phony fees or back taxes.   “To date in 2016, almost $2 million has been reported lost by 590 individuals,” says RCMP assistant commissioner Todd Shean, who leads the force’s Federal Policing Special Services.  “And if only 5% of victims report their losses, we can assume that the actual total amount lost to this scam is much, much higher.”  The agencies call on taxpayers to take steps to ensure their personal information remains confidential and to avoid being duped.
“The CRA will never request prepaid cards, ask for information about your passport, health card or driver’s licence, or leave personal information on your answering machine,” adds Diane Lebouthillier, Minister of National Revenue. “Before taking any action, taxpayers should always verify their tax account by checking My Account via the secure CRA portal or by contacting the CRA at 1 800 959-8281. This information, including examples of real scam telephone calls and e-mails, can be easily found on the CRA website,” she says.

 

Sources: Bloomberg; Investment Executive;  advisor.ca,

Terry Broaders

Weekly Update June 13 2016

“It’s Hard To Be Humble When You’re As Great As I Am” -Muhammad Ali

 

TSX Falls On Friday

The Toronto Stock Exchange saw a triple-digit loss on its last trading day of the week in a decline led by energy companies as the benchmark price for crude slipped. The S&P/TSX composite index was down 202.48 points Friday at 14,037.54, led by the energy sector, which was down 3.8%. The metals and mining sector of the TSX slipped 3.29% and base metals stocks declined 3.02%. The Canadian dollar lost 0.27 of a U.S. cent to 78.39 cents US. That’s despite the fact that Statistics Canada reported that the economy gained 13,800 jobs in May, pushing the jobless rate down to 6.9%, its lowest level since last July.

In New York, markets were also down as uncertainty around global economic risks weighed on investors’ minds.  The Dow Jones industrial average was down 119.85 points at 17,865.34, the broader S&P 500 composite index slid 19.41 points to 2,096.07 and the Nasdaq composite fell 64.07 points to 4,894.55.  Some of the key risks that have traders worried include the upcoming referendum on June 23 that will determine whether the United Kingdom will exit the European Union, as well as uncertainty relating to June meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan..

 

Canadian Baby Boomers To Inherit $750 Billion In Next Decade 

Canadian baby boomers will inherit an estimated $750 billion in the next decade, according to a new CIBC Capital Markets report. It will mark the country’s largest-ever wealth transfer and is expected to alter the retirement landscape. There are currently more than 2.5 million people over the age of 75 in Canada, about 45% of whom are widowed, according to the report. That’s a 25% spike from the level seen 10 years ago.

According to the report, just over half of Canadians between 50 and 75 have received an inheritance. Of those, half received it within the past decade. The average inheritance was $180,000, with British Columbia leading the way in the amount of the average bequest. More money is going to people already in higher income brackets, the report found; Canadians who earn more than $100,000 inherited almost three times more on average than lower-income Canadians. Those with higher education levels also received more. About 40% of higher-income Canadians saved or invested their inheritance, while lower-income people tended to use the money for daily expenses, the report found.

 

Weekly Market Wrap Up as of June 10 2016

North America
The TSX closed at 14038, down -189 points or -1.33% over the past week. YTD the TSX is up 8.08%.
The DOW closed at 17865, up 58 points or 0.33% over the past week. YTD the DOW is up 2.53%.
The S&P closed at 2096, down -3 points or -0.14% over the past week. YTD the S&P is up 2.54%.
The Nasdaq closed at 4895, down -48 points or -0.97% over the past week. YTD the Nasdaq is down -2.24%.
Gold closed at 1277, up 28.00 points or 2.90% over the past week. YTD gold is up 20.59%.
Oil closed at 48.95, up 0.33 points or 0.68% over the past week. YTD oil is up 32.12%.
The USD/CAD closed at 1.277878, down -0.0168 points or -1.30% over the past week. YTD the USD/CAD is down -7.64%.

Europe/Asia
The MSCI closed at 1689, up 10 points or 0.60% over the past week. YTD the MSCI is up 1.56%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 2911, down -87 points or -2.90% over the past week. YTD the Euro Stoxx 50 is down -10.92%.
The FTSE closed at 6116, down -94 points or -1.51% over the past week. YTD the FTSE is down -2.02%.
The CAC closed at 4307, down -115 points or -2.60% over the past week. YTD the CAC is down -7.12%.
DAX closed at 9835, down -268.00 points or -2.65% over the past week. YTD DAX is down -8.45%.
Nikkei closed at 16601, down -41.00 points or -0.25% over the past week. YTD Nikkei is down -12.78%.
The Shanghai closed at 2927, down -12.0000 points or -0.41% over the past week. YTD the Shanghai is down -17.29%.

 

Sources: Bloomberg; Investment Executive;  CIBC; advisor.ca,

Odette Morin

How did the latest “Sell everything” strategy work out?

In my 28 year career in the investment industry, I had to reassure clients time and time again. Investors get really concerned when they hear Doom & Gloom predictions from well meaning friends or the media.
Time and time again I have to remind them to disregard market fluctuations. Good quality investments in a well balanced portfolio always recover. It is safer to stay the course.
Here is a fantastic article about would have happened if you would have followed the latest sell everything strategy that did its rounds earlier this year.
Odette Morin
Frank Mueller

Weekly Update – April 8, 2016

TSX REBOUNDS FRIDAY ON STRONG JOBS NUMBERS, OIL SURGE

The S&P/TSX Composite closed the week at 13,396.73, down 0.3% for the week. At a 2.9% gain year-to-date, Toronto’s main index continues to trail only New Zealand’s index – the world’s best 2016 performer.

While down much of the week, a Friday surge, spurred by encouraging jobs numbers and a 6.6% jump in oil, helped the TSX to cut its losses for the week.

Strong Canadian jobs numbers for March posted a stronger-than-expected increase. A potential knock-on effect of this news could be felt on April 13th, if the Bank of Canada decides not to cut rates again. Before the jobs numbers were released, there was speculation of a rate cut happening again with hopes of further economy stimulation.

Oil enjoyed a healthy jump to finish the week, as data from the Energy Information Administration showed a decreasing U.S. production for the 10th time in 11 weeks, as well as decreased crude stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate May futures closed at $39.72USD per barrel, almost a 50% increase from the February lows, while Brent June futures closed at $41.92USD per barrel. A meeting of oil-producing countries, scheduled for April 17th in Doha, is highly anticipated, as an agreement to freeze output would buoy oil’s price further. John Kilduff, partner at New York energy-focused Hedge Fund Again Capital LLC, stated “We’re still hemmed in a range below $40. Breaking through would be very bullish for the market”.

However, many analysts aren’t believers in an extended oil rally, citing Iran’s goal of winning market share, as well as the world total supply surplus as the main reasons not to believe the hype. Without Iran being on board with a supply cut, other producers cutting supply would only lead to a loss in market share to Iran.

 

Blog Posts

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We Are Not Burger King, And That’s A Good Thing

 

SOURCES: Globe Investor

Odette Morin

Market Recovery Brings Hope

oil price up

 

The price of oil just jumped in the past few weeks from its $30 a barrel lows to $41 today Friday March 18 and have taken the equity markets to new highs. Both the TSX and Dow are now in positive territory year-to-date. The Canadian dollars is also up from its 70 cents and flirted with a 77 cents dollar yesterday.

Three main events triggered the recovery from these oversold markets. OPEC agreed on a supply floor, China is doing better than anticipated and the Feds delayed raising interest rates, even hinting that 2 rates hike maybe more in order instead of 4 hikes. This brings hope that the worst may be over and sets the stage for the recovery to continue. Global stocks posted today their longest streak of growth in two years.

Don’t expect too much for returns this year. Growth is very sluggish and any ascent will likely be volatile but we certainly feel more positive for the year ahead.