Category Archives: The Markets
“Compassion is an action word with no boundaries.” – Prince
We are busy doing your taxes. Our weekly commentary will come back to you on May 6, 2016. Here are this week’s market numbers.
Weekly Market Wrap Up as of April 22, 2016
The TSX closed at 13874, up 237 points or 1.74% over the past week. YTD the TSX is up 6.82%.
The DOW closed at 18004, up 106 points or 0.59% over the past week. YTD the DOW is up 3.32%.
The S&P closed at 2092, up 11 points or 0.53% over the past week. YTD the S&P is up 2.35%.
The Nasdaq closed at 4906, down -32 points or -0.65% over the past week. YTD the Nasdaq is down -2.02%.
Gold closed at 1234, down -6.00 points or -0.16% over the past week. YTD gold is up 16.53%.
Oil closed at 43.75, up 3.35 points or 8.29% over the past week. YTD oil is up 18.08%.
The USD/CAD closed at 1.26705, down -0.0152 points or -1.19% over the past week. YTD the USD/CAD is down -8.43%.
The MSCI closed at 1691, up 19 points or 1.14% over the past week. YTD the MSCI is up 1.68%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 3141, up 87 points or 2.85% over the past week. YTD the Euro Stoxx 50 is down -3.89%.
The FTSE closed at 6310, down -34 points or -0.54% over the past week. YTD the FTSE is up 1.09%.
The CAC closed at 4570, up 75 points or 1.67% over the past week. YTD the CAC is down -1.44%.
DAX closed at 10374, up 322.00 points or 3.20% over the past week. YTD DAX is down -3.43%.
Nikkei closed at 17573, up 725.00 points or 4.30% over the past week. YTD Nikkei is down -7.68%.
The Shanghai closed at 2959, down -119.0000 points or -3.87% over the past week. YTD the Shanghai is down -16.39%.
In Ben Carlson’s book “A Wealth of Common Sense” you can find this chart called Playing the Probabilities, which illustrates the ultimate volatility-killer: a longer time horizon.
What less risks? Stay invested.
“The Difference Between Death & Taxes Is Death Doesn’t Get Worse” – Will Rogers
North American Markets Close in the Red on Friday
North American markets closed slightly lower Friday in anticipation of the weekend’s meeting of OPEC countries that could culminate in an oil production freeze. The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was down 31.09 points at 13,637.20. New York indexes were also in the red as the dip in oil prices dragged down energy companies. The Dow Jones industrial average slipped down 28.97 points to 17,897.46. The broader S&P 500 lost 2.05 points at 2,080.73 with energy stocks being the worst performer by far. The Nasdaq composite dipped by 7.67 points at 4,938.22. The lacklustre closing figures reflect that little noteworthy economic data was being released Friday.
Instead, the markets were waiting to react to news from Sunday’s meeting of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Doha, Qatar. “Obviously all eyes are on the OPEC meeting this weekend and so there’s some caution,” Carlin said. Reports and rumours earlier in the week that a production freeze was imminent have been dying out, said Carlin, adding that the market views this as a potential risk, which pushed down oil prices slightly ahead of the gathering. The May contract for benchmark North America crude closed down $1.14 at US$40.36 a barrel on Friday, adding to losses of the two previous sessions after the commodity closed above US$42 on Tuesday for the first time since late November. This commodity-sensitive Canadian dollar turned slightly higher after two days of loses. It edged up 0.07 of a U.S. cent to 77.90 cents US. Earlier in the week, the loonie hit a nine-month high, reaching 78.38 cents US on Tuesday after a reported deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut oil production sent energy prices higher.
Consumer Spending Up In First Quarter
Consumer spending in Canada grew by 6.24% in the first quarter of 2016 on a year-over-year basis, according to a report by Moneris Solutions Corporation. Following a flat period in 2014, Moneris has recorded six consecutive quarters of positive spending increases. All four quarters of 2015 saw growth of between 5% and 7%. Moneris’ findings this quarter are consistent with positive economic indicators released by Statistics Canada showing GDP growth in January along with an uptick in retail sales and employment increases in March.
Consumer spending rose by 5.89% in January, 9.03% in February and 4.42% in March, compared to the first three months of 2015. All provinces posted year-over-year increases during the quarter, with the exception of Alberta. Nova Scotia posted the largest increase (11.65%) followed by New Brunswick (10.40%).
The oil-producing provinces posted growth below the national average; spending in Alberta declined by 2.99% and Saskatchewan saw an increase of 1.08%.
Credit card spending increased by 8.36% over the first quarter of 2015, holding a 64.66% share of purchases made. Debit sales rose by 2.57%, representing a 35.34% share of total card spending.
Weekly Market Wrap Up as of March 18 2016
The TSX closed at 13637, up 240 points or 1.79% over the past week. YTD the TSX is up 5.00%.
The DOW closed at 17898, up 321 points or 1.83% over the past week. YTD the DOW is up 2.71%.
The S&P closed at 2081, up 33 points or 1.61% over the past week. YTD the S&P is up 1.81%.
The Nasdaq closed at 4938, up 87 points or 1.79% over the past week. YTD the Nasdaq is down -1.38%.
Gold closed at 1236, down 5.00 points or -0.48% over the past week. YTD gold is up 16.71%.
Oil closed at 40.4, up 0.88 points or 2.23% over the past week. YTD oil is up 9.04%.
The USD/CAD closed at 1.282258, down -0.0178 points or -1.37% over the past week. YTD the USD/CAD is down -7.33%.
The MSCI closed at 1672, up 50 points or 3.08% over the past week. YTD the MSCI is up 0.54%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 3054, up 142 points or 4.88% over the past week. YTD the Euro Stoxx 50 is down -6.55%.
The FTSE closed at 6344, up 140 points or 2.26% over the past week. YTD the FTSE is up 1.63%.
The CAC closed at 4495, up 192 points or 4.46% over the past week. YTD the CAC is down -3.06%.
DAX closed at 10052, up 430.00 points or 4.47% over the past week. YTD DAX is down -6.43%.
Nikkei closed at 16848, up 1026.00 points or 6.48% over the past week. YTD Nikkei is down -11.48%.
The Shanghai closed at 3078, up 93.0000 points or 3.12% over the past week. YTD the Shanghai is down -13.03%.
Sources: Bloomberg; Investment Executive; advisor.ca,
TSX REBOUNDS FRIDAY ON STRONG JOBS NUMBERS, OIL SURGE
The S&P/TSX Composite closed the week at 13,396.73, down 0.3% for the week. At a 2.9% gain year-to-date, Toronto’s main index continues to trail only New Zealand’s index – the world’s best 2016 performer.
While down much of the week, a Friday surge, spurred by encouraging jobs numbers and a 6.6% jump in oil, helped the TSX to cut its losses for the week.
Strong Canadian jobs numbers for March posted a stronger-than-expected increase. A potential knock-on effect of this news could be felt on April 13th, if the Bank of Canada decides not to cut rates again. Before the jobs numbers were released, there was speculation of a rate cut happening again with hopes of further economy stimulation.
Oil enjoyed a healthy jump to finish the week, as data from the Energy Information Administration showed a decreasing U.S. production for the 10th time in 11 weeks, as well as decreased crude stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate May futures closed at $39.72USD per barrel, almost a 50% increase from the February lows, while Brent June futures closed at $41.92USD per barrel. A meeting of oil-producing countries, scheduled for April 17th in Doha, is highly anticipated, as an agreement to freeze output would buoy oil’s price further. John Kilduff, partner at New York energy-focused Hedge Fund Again Capital LLC, stated “We’re still hemmed in a range below $40. Breaking through would be very bullish for the market”.
However, many analysts aren’t believers in an extended oil rally, citing Iran’s goal of winning market share, as well as the world total supply surplus as the main reasons not to believe the hype. Without Iran being on board with a supply cut, other producers cutting supply would only lead to a loss in market share to Iran.
SOURCES: Globe Investor
TSX FINISHES MARCH UP 4.9% DESPITE LOSSES TO END THE WEEK
The S&P/TSX Composite closed the week at 13,440.44, and as March came to a close, the TSX enjoyed its strongest monthly advance since October of 2011 by posting a 4.9% gain. At a 2.7% gain year-to-date, Toronto’s main index remains behind only New Zealand’s index as the world’s best 2016 performer.
The Thursday and Friday TSX losses were led, as usual, by drops in crude oil and resources such as gold.
Oil fell below $37USD per barrel, wiping out much of it’s gains year-to-date. Comments by Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, were a major reason for the drop, as he stated Saudi Arabia won’t freeze output unless other major oil producers do so. Meanwhile, world-wide oil production continues at between 1-2 million barrels per day of surplus. As weather warms with the change to Spring, demand could wane. Add all these factors together, and further drops in oil’s valuation is a very real possibility.
Strong US jobs numbers for March – our southerly neighbour added 215,000 jobs – paced expectations by about 10,000, improving the overall outlook about the US economy. Adding to the positive US news was speculation about a sooner-than-expected rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Naturally, US jobs and Fed rate hike news weighed on gold, and the metal was down by 1% before settling at $1,223.50USD at market close. For the first quarter of 2016, gold has surged to a 16% increase in price. This represents the strongest quarterly rise in decades.
TAX TIME HAS COME AGAIN
Usually, the deadline for individuals not self-employed is April 30th. However, in years – such as 2016 – where April 30th falls on a weekend or holiday, the CRA considers your return to be filed on time if they receive the return/payment on the next business day. The 2016 exception date is Monday, May 2nd.
Self-employed persons must still pay any balances outstanding on/before May 2nd, but they can file their return on or before June 15th.
If you are the executor of the estate for a deceased person who died in 2015, you might have to file a 2015 tax return for that person.
Some helpful links:
Sources: Globe Advisor, Canada Revenue Agency Website