The next Canadian Federal election is Monday, September 20th. Recent polling data indicates a minority government is the most probable outcome, with a small chance of a majority government being formed.
RBC GAM looked back at the last 13 federal elections to gauge their impact on financial markets. They found that markets typically look through election noise. Short-term returns generally tend to be noisier but looking a bit longer-term, a pattern emerges.
As we can see, 1-year figures under minority government control have exceeded the comparable majority government figures.
Weekly Update – By The Numbers
| North America | Friday Close | Weekly Change | Weekly % Change | YTD % Change |
| Canada – S&P TSX Composite | 20,633 | -188 | -0.90% | 18.36% |
| USA – Dow Jones Industrial Average | 34,608 | -761 | -2.15% | 13.08% |
| USA – S&P 500 | 4,459 | -76 | -1.68% | 18.72% |
| USA – Nasdaq | 15,115 | -537 | -3.43% | 17.28% |
| Gold Futures (USD) | $1,788.20 | -$42.70 | -2.33% | -5.80% |
| Crude Oil Futures (USD) | $69.71 | $0.42 | 0.61% | 43.67% |
| CAD/USD Exchange Rate | $0.7880 | -$0.0087 | -1.09% | 0.27% |
| Europe / Asia | Friday Close | Weekly Change | Weekly % Change | YTD % Change |
| MSCI World Index | 3,122 | -42 | -1.33% | 16.06% |
| Switzerland – Euro Stoxx 50 | 4,170 | -32 | -0.76% | 16.74% |
| England – FTSE 100 | 7,029 | -110 | -1.54% | 8.79% |
| France – CAC 40 | 6,664 | -326 | -4.66% | 20.05% |
| Germany – DAX Performance Index | 15,610 | -171 | -1.08% | 13.78% |
| Japan – Nikkei 225 | 30,382 | 1,254 | 4.31% | 10.71% |
| China – Shanghai Composite Index | 3,703 | 121 | 3.38% | 6.62% |
| CAD/EURO Exchange Rate | € 0.6667 | -€ 0.0041 | -0.61% | 3.64% |
| Fixed Income | Friday Close | Weekly Change | Weekly % Change | YTD % Change |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (in %) | 1.3410 | 0.0190 | 1.44% | 46.40% |
Source: RBC GAM, Yahoo! Finance, CNBC.com
This information is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute professional advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs before taking any action.